Nickname: Janusly

Review: Chinese economy is growing very fast at a more than 8% rate annually, while the grassroot wont share the fruits. The economy is very very hot, but just unhealthy when it comes to its structure, most of which are repeating and low-efficient construction.

Date reviewed: Aug 25, 2006 2:33 AM

Nickname: TheChineseProspective

Review: Can China keep going on this fast rate?? Why not. All developed industry powers had their period of rapid economic growth lasting for decades. Why shouldn't China? If you look at more recent history (last 40-50 yrs), at least 3-4 countries/regions have achieved decades of rapid growth under totalitarian government control--Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Chile. They eventually become rich and democratic countries compare with them, China is much, much bigger and more complicated, economically and politically. But to me, this only means China's economical growth and transformation to democracy will take longer time--say 50-60 years instead of 20-30 year in cases of Korean/Taiwan. So I would say China will continue its rapid growth >7-8% for at least another 20 years. There will be massive social changes and social unrests, but the experience in past 15 year has showed those unrests can be solved slowly with the economical growth (just like "growing pain").

Date reviewed: Jul 22, 2006 6:06 PM

Nickname: UP boy

Review: It's of course a good time to make sense about it. China's economic growth can be explained by a lot of factors, all well known, but the most important for this topic seems to be the great money supply growth. We have to consider first, that this economic component was the main reason for the East Asian's crisis of 1997. Some kinds of things that made possible the crisis yesterday are visible now into the China's economic performance, and the externals pressures over Hu's goverment for the Yuan apreciation and the price that China had to pay (in terms of commercial power) will be things so hard to confront. However, main reaction had to do with the lending channel of monetary policy; not only because is a crucial input for macro objetives but for it's effects at micro levels, like the rol of credit access in rural areas of China. Therefore, tha's is required is a mix of politics that make sustainable the rapid growth of china, not only for it but for every one of us.

Date reviewed: Jul 21, 2006 5:42 PM

Nickname: Student, CA

Review: After being in China this summer to see the growth and experience the culture from a business student perspective, and after learning all the numbers and facts in class, I have found that the controversy will remain and the real question is: How are the 35 leaders in Beijing going to handle the possible boom to bust cycle? Some people say that the growing economy is out of the hands of Beijing, but the control of regulation that Beijing has right now is enough to help simmer and sustain the economy. The Chinese are smart, and they are going to do whatever possible to make sure that China continues in its growth while escaping any possibility of recession. The thought of an economic bust in China causing a ripple effect throughout the world is something fun and interesting to discuss and great for articles, but the chances of such a bust with so many people working night and day to prevent it are slim. There still is the chance and that is enough to ramble on about for months.

Date reviewed: Jul 21, 2006 7:10 AM

Nickname: KV

Review: How fast the economy of a country is growing on a macro level is not really important. What is important is how the benefits of the growth percolates down to the micro level. If only a few segments of the population are going to enjoy the fruits of the rapid growth leaving a vast section in much worse condition, then the country is in big trouble. The renewed growth of naxalism in India is testimony to this. China being a totalitarian, we really don't know the actual conditions of the majority in the vast hinterland. I also wonder whether the government also really knows. No government can use repression forever to subdue a frustrated silent majority.Beyond a certain threshold, it will backfire. On the other hand, if growth is modest and is evenly distributed to all sections, one need not worry.

Date reviewed: Jul 20, 2006 8:39 AM

Nickname: China Law Blog

Review: More and more students are coming out of China's universities without jobs. Its rural populace is, for the most part, still dirt poor. These sorts of things make it very hard for the government to slow things down. www.chinalawblog.com

Date reviewed: Jul 20, 2006 6:08 AM

Nickname: Lost_and_Found

Review: Reader in PA is correct that the surplus liquidity can be put to good use in proving a safety net for Chinese citizens. The benefits would be manyfold. Rural peasants provided with health and childcare, land ownership, etc., could ease social tensions caused by envy of the people in the cities and social stability maintained. Also, Chinese people in general would then have cash freed up to spend on their own manufactures. The Chinese market then grows and becomes more attractive to further inward investment. This virtuous cycle could run for years.

Date reviewed: Jul 19, 2006 3:59 PM

Nickname: YLT

Review: This is not the first warning given by experts or economists about China's overheating economy. However, it seems that most of the companies, including American Fortune 500, still quicken their steps to join this "gold rush." Some may benefit from low-cost offers by Chinese manufacturers while others may substantially increase their sales to Chinese customers. In addition to expecting the Chinese government to cool down its economy for the greater good, what else can foreign companies do to control the potential risk and protect themselves? If China's current market is hardly controlled by the Chinese government, can investors from Taiwan, Japan, or even the U.S. keep away from the crisis caused by the overheating Chinese economy in the future? I am afraid the answer might be no. However, how many companies do know how to control their risks when devouring the China's great market?

Date reviewed: Jul 19, 2006 3:07 AM

Nickname: dolboeb

Review: I can't really see why China should curb its progress, only because the U.S. finds it all the more difficult to fairly compete with the younger Dragon. All those American dissatisfactions and World Bank pressures for China to hamper its own economy seem to contradict China's best interests. If I were a Chinese leader, I wouldn't take the American advice on this one.

Date reviewed: Jul 19, 2006 3:01 AM

Nickname: 2bwise

Review: I don't know why you folks at BusinessWeek can't get through your heads the following facts: According to China's one-child-per-household poilcy that country has 400 million families. Each one of those families has to have a furnished house/apartment to live in and a vehicle to drive. That is the reason why China will never even have a so-called "glut" of any big-ticket item. Anybody with common sense knows that you don't need "permission" to be a consumer. Also you don't seem to understand that that "EVERY" G8 country's consumer base is already at 100% market penetration. I guess you think a person can just sell shoes to Imelda Marcos while refusing to sell shoes to 70 million Phillpinos that don't have the first pair of shoes.

Date reviewed: Jul 19, 2006 1:27 AM